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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 1
Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 14
What Actually Happened
(1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.54 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.45 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth -0.28 EP
KICK
+1.47 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT
-0.55 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
