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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 53

Green Bay Packers 31 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to CHI 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 13-Z.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.87 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 53, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.89 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP