4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 31 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 28-T.Smack 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.18 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model