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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 25

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model