Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Drew Lock (SEA) -0.018 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.246 EPA/dropback
- SF defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- SEA offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
SF
SEA
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:15 TD SF (11:15) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – SEA 0
- Q1 05:46 TD SEA (5:46) 23-E.Wilson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – SEA 6
- Q2 13:31 FG SEA (13:31) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 7 – SEA 10
- Q2 08:22 TD SF (8:22) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – SEA 10
- Q2 02:00 FG SEA (2:00) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 14 – SEA 13
- Q2 00:18 TD SF (:18) 36-G.Holani left guard to SEA 0 for -4 yards (93-G.Halton). FUMBLES (93-G.Halton), touched at SEA 0, RECOVERED by SF-93-G.Halton at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – SEA 13
- Q3 09:00 FG SEA (9:00) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 21 – SEA 16
- Q3 05:59 TD SEA (5:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 21 – SEA 22
- Q3 03:06 FG SEA (3:06) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 21 – SEA 26
- Q4 11:10 TD SF (11:10) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 84-B.Cooks for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 27 – SEA 26
- Q4 06:59 FG SEA (6:59) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 29 – SEA 29
- Q4 02:00 FG SF (2:00) 18-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. SF 32 – SEA 29
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EPp(convert) 71%
(14:04) 15-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 74Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 64%
(9:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to SF 35, Center-41-C.Stoll. 4-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, touched at SF 33, RECOVERED by SEA-81-E.Saubert at SF 24.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(4:47) 15-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SEA 4th & 15 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(3:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to SF 45, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 34%
(:46) 15-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 80%
(13:31) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 16 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 50%
(8:37) 15-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 27% p(FG) 55%
(:27) 15-C.Waitman punts 38 yards to SEA 4, impetus ends at SEA 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-24-A.Davis.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 74%
(13:15) 18-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 88%
(9:00) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 30Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 81%
(3:06) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%
(6:59) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 25 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 88%
(2:00) 18-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 50 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 34%
(:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at SF 41 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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