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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 42

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(:27) 15-C.Waitman punts 38 yards to SEA 4, impetus ends at SEA 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-24-A.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.99 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP