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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to SF 35, Center-41-C.Stoll. 4-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, touched at SF 33, RECOVERED by SEA-81-E.Saubert at SF 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.46 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP