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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 15-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.80 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP