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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 29 – Seattle Seahawks 29

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 18-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.39 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model