4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 22

Seattle Seahawks 26 – San Francisco 49ers 29

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.90 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model