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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 31

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.57 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model