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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 23 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.43 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP