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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 29 – San Francisco 49ers 32

What Actually Happened

(:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at SF 41 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.03 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.27 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model