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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 25

Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.67 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP