Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 87

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(3:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to SF 45, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.44 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model