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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 18-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model