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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:46) 15-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.74 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model