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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 15-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.12 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model