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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-4 HC Todd Bowles
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Dallas Cowboys

2-3 HC Brian Schottenheimer
Thursday 2026-10-08 · 20:15 ET AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

TB
37.8%
DAL
62.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.230 vs Jalon Daniels (TB) -0.144 EPA/dropback
  • DAL offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TB 22 15–29
–
DAL 26 19–33
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

TB

Baker Mayfield QB Out Thumb
Antoine Winfield Jr. S Out Rib
SirVocea Dennis LB Out Ankle
Benjamin Morrison CB Out Quadricep

DAL

Cobie Durant CB Out Hamstring
DeMarvion Overshown LB Out Hamstring
Drew Shelton T Out Hamstring
Tyler Smith G Questionable Thumb
Jonathan Mingo WR Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 24
–
DAL 16

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:53 TD DAL (10:53) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD TB (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 7-B.Irving for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – DAL 7
  • Q2 00:26 FG DAL (:26) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. TB 7 – DAL 10
  • Q3 14:04 TD TB (14:04) 2-E.Egbuka left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – DAL 10
  • Q3 07:35 TD TB (7:35) 7-B.Irving left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – DAL 10
  • Q3 03:02 FG TB (3:02) 4-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 24 – DAL 10
  • Q4 05:30 TD DAL (5:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 24 – DAL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:36) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to TB 3, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to TB 49, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson. PENALTY on DAL-50-S.James, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 49.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 45%

    (9:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to TB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%

    (3:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to DAL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:15) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to TB 36, Center-44-T.Sieg. 15-T.Johnson to TB 48 for 12 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 35%

    (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to DAL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%

    (:26) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 17 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

    (3:02) 4-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 87-J.Ferguson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (8:36) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to DAL 1 for no gain (55-J.Barham).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to DAL 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 10 yards (52-C.Rozeboom).

    See the full breakdown →