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Thursday 2026-10-08 · 20:15
AT&T Stadium, Arlington US
🏟 Dome
Spread 3.5
O/U 52.5
Win Probability
Dome
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.161 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.083 EPA/dropback
- DAL offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- TB defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
TB
23
–
DAL
24
Projected margin: DAL by 1
Projected total: 47
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.