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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 6 at the 23
Dallas Cowboys 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
What Actually Happened
(:26) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The Three Options
GO
+1.52 EP
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.35 EP
- 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.42 EP
KICK
+1.97 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 91% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
- 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
