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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to DAL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.05 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model