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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 92

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to TB 49, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson. PENALTY on DAL-50-S.James, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 49.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.55 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 92, worth -5.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.89 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 50, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP