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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to TB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.59 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model