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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 4-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.59 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model