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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to DAL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model