Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Dallas Cowboys 16

(3:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to DAL 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 10 yards (52-C.Rozeboom).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.65 EP
60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model