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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to DAL 1 for no gain (55-J.Barham).

The Three Options

GO +3.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.41 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model