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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 87-J.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.63 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model