LV @ NE — 4th & Data

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New England Patriots

3-2 HC Mike Vrabel

Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

16.2%

83.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
LV defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
Drake Maye (NE): +0.002 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LV 18 11–25

–

NE 28 21–35

Projected margin: NE by 10 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

LV

Jalen Nailor WR Out Concussion

Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR Out Hamstring

Trey Zuhn III C Out Knee

Ashton Jeanty RB Questionable Ankle

NE

Mack Hollins WR Out Calf

Carlton Davis III CB Out Neck

Reggie Gilliam FB Out Ankle

Christian Gonzalez CB Out Shoulder

Karon Prunty CB Out Hamstring

Channing Canada CB Out Hamstring

Morgan Moses T Questionable Foot

Dre'Mont Jones LB Questionable Shoulder

Christian Elliss LB Questionable Chest

Rhamondre Stevenson RB Questionable Knee

Christian Barmore DT Questionable Shoulder

Charles Woods CB Questionable Shoulder

Craig Woodson S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 17

–

NE 45

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:30 TD NE (11:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 3-D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – NE 6
Q1 08:24 TD LV (8:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – NE 7
Q1 01:37 TD NE (1:37) 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – NE 13
Q2 00:28 TD NE (:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. Penalty on LV-17-N.Dean, Defensive Holding, declined. LV 7 – NE 20
Q3 13:04 TD NE (13:04) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 18-K.Williams for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – NE 27
Q3 08:34 FG LV (8:34) 14-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – NE 28
Q3 03:14 TD NE (3:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – NE 34
Q4 14:15 FG NE (14:15) 8-A.Borregales 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. LV 10 – NE 38
Q4 10:54 TD LV (10:54) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-94-C.Durden was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-99-Da.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. LV 16 – NE 38
Q4 06:11 TD NE (6:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 17 – NE 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(14:02) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NE 21, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 48

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 61% p(FG) 41%

(4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 8

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

(2:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to LV 1 for 7 yards (31-T.Stukes).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(14:56) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to NE 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 23 for 14 yards (47-A.Ward; 34-C.Heyward). PENALTY on LV-93-P.Johnson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 23.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NE 4th & 16 at the 40

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 62%

(11:00) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 27 yards to LV 13, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-50-G.Jacas.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 40

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 62%

(5:20) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 LV 4th & 14 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 80%

(1:56) 14-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(11:38) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to NE 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 15 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on NE-48-N.Obiazor, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at NE 25.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(9:59) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to LV 31, Center-47-J.Ashby. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 49 for 18 yards (54-D.Muasau).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 86%

(8:34) 14-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 51

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 34%

(2:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NE 36 for 15 yards (28-K.Vildor; 31-K.Byard). FUMBLES (28-K.Vildor), RECOVERED by NE-4-C.Woodson at NE 34.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 9

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

(14:15) 8-A.Borregales 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 14 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

(2:42) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza scrambles right end pushed ob at NE 11 for 3 yards (33-M.Brown).
See the full breakdown →

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