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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 40

New England Patriots 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 27 yards to LV 13, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-50-G.Jacas.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.50 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP