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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 9

New England Patriots 35 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 8-A.Borregales 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 9, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model