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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 31

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 14-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.59 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model