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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – New England Patriots 45

What Actually Happened

(2:42) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza scrambles right end pushed ob at NE 11 for 3 yards (33-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.00 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model