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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 85

New England Patriots 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to LV 31, Center-47-J.Ashby. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 49 for 18 yards (54-D.Muasau).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.00 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model