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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 8

New England Patriots 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to LV 1 for 7 yards (31-T.Stukes).

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.94 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 8, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model