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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 15 at the 40
Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New England Patriots 14
What Actually Happened
(5:20) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.79 EP
-
22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.05 EP
- 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP
KICK
-0.27 EP
Model's Pick
- 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
- 38% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT
-0.55 EP
What Happened
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
