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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to NE 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 23 for 14 yards (47-A.Ward; 34-C.Heyward). PENALTY on LV-93-P.Johnson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model