Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to NE 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 15 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on NE-48-N.Obiazor, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at NE 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.16 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model