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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 14-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model