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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New England Patriots 35

What Actually Happened

(2:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NE 36 for 15 yards (28-K.Vildor; 31-K.Byard). FUMBLES (28-K.Vildor), RECOVERED by NE-4-C.Woodson at NE 34.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.77 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model