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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NE 21, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.09 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model