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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 48

New England Patriots 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model