Best Bets — Week 2

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Model: NE 79.9% · strong edge

NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Model: GB 76.1% · strong edge

NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Model: SF 74.4% · strong edge

SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Model: TB 73.5% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Model: LA 73.2% · strong edge

LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Model: BUF 71.5% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Model: SEA 69.9% · clear edge

ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Model: LAC 68.7% · clear edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Model: CHI 64.3% · clear edge

MIN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Model: BAL 64.1% · clear edge

NO offense: -0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Model: KC 62.6% · clear edge

KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)