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Cleveland Browns

1-1 HC Todd Monken
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-2 HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 13:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CLE
28.0%
TB
72.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.124 vs Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.163 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19 12–26
–
TB 24 17–31
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

CLE

Teven Jenkins G Out Back
Noah Igbinoghene CB Questionable Hand
Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Ankle

TB

Miles Killebrew S Questionable Concussion
Jalen McMillan WR Questionable Knee
Jacob Parrish CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 23
–
TB 19

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:16 FG TB (11:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CLE 0 – TB 3
  • Q1 07:17 FG CLE (7:17) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – TB 3
  • Q1 04:06 FG TB (4:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CLE 3 – TB 6
  • Q2 14:02 FG CLE (14:02) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 6 – TB 6
  • Q2 00:15 FG TB (:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CLE 6 – TB 9
  • Q3 09:39 TD TB (9:39) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – TB 15
  • Q3 03:48 FG CLE (3:48) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 9 – TB 16
  • Q3 01:33 TD CLE (1:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 12-D.Boston for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 15 – TB 16
  • Q4 10:01 FG TB (10:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CLE 16 – TB 19
  • Q4 03:57 TD CLE (3:57) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 86-B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 22 – TB 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 5 yards (54-S.Williams). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 21.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 57%

    (11:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 78%

    (7:17) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 85%

    (4:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to TB 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

    (14:02) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:50) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 34 for no gain (95-E.Roberts).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (3:48) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 15 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CLE 17, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CLE 26, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (10:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.85 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka.

    See the full breakdown →