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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP