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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.08 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model