Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

(2:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to TB 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model