4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.01 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model