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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 16

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.30 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 16, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model