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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CLE 17, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.97 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model